Market Outlook  May 5  2025: Dollar Pauses, Gold Rebounds, Risk Assets Mixed 🔥 
📊 Full analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Gold, Oil, and S&P 500 with expert technical and macro insights.

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🌐 Market Summary – May 5, 2025

The financial markets open the week with cautious momentum as traders digest Friday’s U.S. labor data and geopolitical developments. The dollar index (DXY) is holding steady near 106.30, gold has rebounded from last week’s dip, and equities are showing signs of hesitation. With central bank policy divergence still a dominant theme, markets remain data-sensitive and headline-driven.

Market Outlook  May 5  2025

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🇪🇺 EUR/USD – Attempting Recovery Amid Dollar Consolidation

🔍 Technical Outlook:

• Trend: Neutral-to-Bullish

• Resistance: 1.0810, 1.0850

• Support: 1.0740, 1.0685

EUR/USD is stabilizing after reclaiming the 1.0750 level on Friday. Price action suggests the pair is attempting a base formation, with buyers stepping in above key moving averages on the H4 chart.

📈 RSI at 54 and MACD turning positive on the 4H time frame signal a potential shift in momentum.

🧠 Fundamentals:

• Eurozone: Services PMI remains strong at 53.9, while inflation data supports hawkish ECB stance.

• US Dollar: Soft NFP print weakens near-term dollar bullishness, especially with Powell signaling a patient Fed.

• Outlook: If EUR/USD clears 1.0810 with volume, expect a test of 1.0850.

 

Market Outlook  May 5  2025

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🇬🇧 GBP/USD – Held Below 1.2600 but Buyers Defending 1.2500

🔍 Technical Outlook:

• Trend: Sideways

• Resistance: 1.2600

• Support: 1.2480

GBP/USD is caught in a tight range, supported by 1.2500. Price remains above the 200-SMA on H1, suggesting short-term buying pressure.

📉 However, lack of follow-through above 1.2600 raises doubts about sustained upside.

🧠 Fundamentals:

• UK house prices rose unexpectedly in April, giving some support to the pound.

• Markets await Wednesday’s BoE rate decision – expected to hold, but tone will be key.

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🇯🇵 USD/JPY – Consolidating Gains Near 157.00

🔍 Technical Overview:

• Trend: Bullish

• Resistance: 157.50

• Support: 156.00

USD/JPY is pausing near 34-year highs as traders weigh the risk of BoJ intervention. The uptrend remains intact but extended.

🟢 RSI above 70 and divergence in MACD suggest caution is warranted.

🧠 Fundamentals:

• Japanese officials continue jawboning the yen, but no direct intervention yet.

• U.S. yields support USD/JPY as 10-year Treasury holds above 4.60%.

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🇦🇺 AUD/USD – Lifting from 0.6500 Amid China Optimism

🔍 Technical Levels:

• Resistance: 0.6580

• Support: 0.6500

AUD/USD is bouncing off multi-week support after upbeat Chinese stimulus chatter and modest improvement in local data.

📊 Technicals show RSI near 50, and price is testing a falling wedge breakout on H4.

🧠 Macro Notes:

• RBA expected to keep rates steady tomorrow – focus on tone.

• Iron ore prices rising slightly – bullish for AUD.

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🪙 Gold (XAU/USD) – Back Above $2,300 as Dollar Pulls Back

🔍 Technical Overview:

• Trend: Bullish Short-Term

• Resistance: $2,325, $2,340

• Support: $2,285, $2,270

Gold has rebounded strongly after holding the $2,285 level. Technical structure favors further upside as buyers regain control.

📈 RSI at 58, MACD printing green bars on H4.

🧠 Fundamentals:

• Lower U.S. yields and softer dollar provide room for gold to climb.

• Real yields remain elevated, capping long-term upside, but near-term momentum is positive.

📖 Read Gold Forecast on Investing.com

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🛢️ Crude Oil (WTI) – Testing Resistance After Bounce from $78

🔍 Technical Levels:

• Resistance: $81.50

• Support: $78.50

Crude oil is recovering as supply-side worries return. WTI has bounced from $78 support and is testing a key trendline near $81.50.

📊 Technicals remain neutral with MACD flat and RSI at 52.

🧠 Oil Drivers:

• U.S. rig count fell slightly last week – supply concerns back in focus.

• China’s crude imports increased in April, hinting at demand recovery.

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📈 S&P 500 – Consolidating Gains Near 5,080

🔍 Technical Outlook:

• Trend: Bullish

• Support: 5,020

• Resistance: 5,110

The index continues to hold above the 50-SMA on daily, with buying supported by solid earnings and soft dollar.

📉 RSI is at 61 – no extremes, allowing further upside.

🧠 Market Sentiment:

• Tech stocks continue to lead gains (AAPL +2.1%, MSFT +1.8%).

• Fed’s pause and strong corporate guidance fuel risk-on appetite.

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📊 Market Recap Table

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📥 Related Insight

If you’re looking for deeper trade setups based on today’s movements, don’t miss our Daily Forex Signals – updated daily by FXADV’s expert team. Also, keep tracking live macro context on our full Daily Market Analysis page.

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🏁 Conclusion

Dear trader, the global markets enter this week cautiously optimistic. With the dollar pulling back and risk sentiment gradually improving, key setups across forex, commodities, and indices are forming. Patience and confirmation remain essential. Let price tell the story — and let FXADV.com guide you there.