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XAU/USD Forex Signal – April 22, 2025
Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) remains in the spotlight as it consolidates above $3,380 per ounce on April 22, 2025. Following a sharp rally last week, gold prices are holding firm as traders digest mixed global economic signals, heightened geopolitical tensions, and persistent speculation over the Federal Reserve’s next move.
This signal favors a continuation of the bullish trend with a clear technical and macroeconomic foundation, offering favorable risk-reward for medium-term long positions.
Trade Setup Summary
- Instrument: XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar)
- Signal Type: Buy
- Entry Price: $3,380
- Take Profit: $3,450 (Primary Target), $3,520 (Extended Target)
- Stop Loss: $3,310
- Time Frame: 1–4 days
Fundamental Analysis
Global Risk Sentiment
- Ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe and rising tensions in Asia are boosting safe-haven flows.
- Equity markets are facing volatility, which drives institutional demand for gold.
Federal Reserve Outlook
- Fed policymakers remain divided, but inflationary pressure and slower job creation could push them toward rate cuts.
- Market pricing suggests a 55% chance of a rate cut in the June meeting.
Central Bank Demand
- Central banks globally are continuing to add to their gold reserves.
- China and India both increased their official holdings in Q1 2025.
Technical Analysis
Moving Averages
- Gold remains well above the 50- and 100-period SMAs.
- Both MAs are upward-sloping, reinforcing bullish structure.
RSI
- RSI on the 4H chart is at 68, suggesting strong buying interest without being overbought.
MACD
- MACD histogram continues to rise above the zero line.
- A new bullish crossover is visible on the 1H chart.
Fibonacci Levels
- Price bounced off the 38.2% retracement at $3,310.
- Next fib projection targets $3,450 and $3,520.
Price Action
- Gold formed a flag pattern on the 4H chart, with a recent breakout confirming bullish momentum.
- Volume has increased on up-days, confirming demand.
Entry Strategy – April 22, 2025
📌 Buy XAU/USD at: $3,380
🎯 Take Profit 1: $3,450
🎯 Take Profit 2: $3,520
🛑 Stop Loss: $3,310
Entry is confirmed by 1H close above $3,380. Trailing stop suggested once price reaches $3,440.
Risk Management Tips
- Risk per trade should not exceed 2% of account equity.
- Be aware of upcoming U.S. economic releases (PMI, GDP, Fed commentary).
- Adjust stop-loss dynamically in case of sharp intraday moves.
Market Sentiment Snapshot
- Commitment of Traders (COT) shows rising long interest in gold.
- ETF inflows continue for the fourth consecutive week.
This setup complements our GBP/USD signal for April 22, which also reflects a bearish outlook for the dollar.
External Resources
Conclusion
XAU/USD remains in a strong technical uptrend, supported by global macro uncertainty, central bank demand, and a weakening U.S. Dollar. With a well-structured entry at $3,380 and targets up to $3,520, traders have a clear bullish setup to work with.
As volatility remains elevated in other markets, gold offers relative stability and opportunity for breakout-focused strategies.
