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XAU/USD Forex Signal – April 21, 2025
Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) continues its meteoric rise, reaching $3,370 per ounce as of April 21, 2025. Investors are increasingly turning to gold amid heightened global uncertainty, inflation concerns, and a weakening U.S. Dollar. This bullish environment provides a compelling setup for long positions in the yellow metal.
Gold is benefiting from a combination of safe-haven demand, declining U.S. Treasury yields, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates in the second half of 2025. With risk-off sentiment dominating the market, gold appears poised to test even higher levels.
Trade Setup Summary
- Instrument: XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar)
- Signal Type: Buy
- Entry Price: $3,370
- Take Profit: $3,500 (Primary Target), $3,650 (Extended Target)
- Stop Loss: $3,280
- Time Frame: 1–5 days (short- to medium-term)
Fundamental Analysis
Inflation and Interest Rates
Although inflation in the U.S. has cooled slightly, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Combined with stagnant wage growth and mixed economic data, the central bank is likely to pivot toward monetary easing later this year.
This expectation has led to declining real yields and increased investor demand for gold as a hedge.
Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and renewed uncertainty in global supply chains are all fueling safe-haven flows into gold. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have also been increasing their gold reserves.
U.S. Dollar Weakness
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has lost more than 3% in the last two weeks. Gold, being dollar-denominated, becomes more attractive for international buyers as the greenback weakens.
Technical Analysis
Moving Averages
- Gold is trading well above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages.
- These averages continue to slope upward, confirming the long-term uptrend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
- RSI is currently at 75 on the 4H and daily charts, indicating strong bullish momentum.
- While in overbought territory, in trending markets this often signals strength rather than imminent reversal.
MACD
- MACD histogram is expanding, and a bullish crossover occurred three sessions ago.
- Momentum indicators continue to support the current bullish phase.
Fibonacci Levels
- Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing low to high suggests key support lies at $3,280 (38.2% retracement).
- The next major resistance is psychological: $3,500, followed by $3,650 (measured move projection).
Price Structure
- A breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern occurred last week.
- Price action continues to make higher highs and higher lows, a clear bullish structure.
Entry Strategy – April 21, 2025
Buy XAU/USD at: $3,370
Take Profit 1: $3,500
Take Profit 2: $3,650
Stop Loss: $3,280
Look for a 1-hour candle close above $3,370 for confirmation before entry. Use a trailing stop once price crosses $3,470 to protect profits.
Risk Management Tips
- Avoid overleveraging; trade with no more than 1–2% risk per position.
- Monitor upcoming U.S. data such as Core PCE and employment numbers.
- Use alerts near $3,450 and $3,500 for scaling out or moving stops.
Strategic Insights
Gold is currently leading global assets in year-to-date performance. As economic uncertainty and dovish central bank expectations persist, XAU/USD offers a uniquely strong technical and macro case.
Diversifying your portfolio with gold during times of volatility remains a time-tested strategy. Traders looking for lower volatility setups may consider pairings like EUR/GBP or USD/CHF.
External Resources
Conclusion
The bullish setup on XAU/USD for April 21, 2025 is backed by multiple layers of confluence: macroeconomic uncertainty, central bank demand, technical momentum, and geopolitical risk.
The $3,370 entry area offers excellent positioning with clear upside targets at $3,500 and $3,650. For traders seeking a strong trend-following opportunity, gold remains a top contender.
